全球数字贸易增长优势明显 应对AI重构挑战亟待政策协同

Core Insights - The global digital trade is experiencing significant growth, with a projected increase in export scale from $4.59 trillion in 2020 to $7.23 trillion by 2024, reflecting an annual growth rate of 12.1%, surpassing the global trade growth rate of 9.7% during the same period [2][3] - The digital trade landscape is becoming more diversified, with major economies like the EU, the US, China, the UK, and India leading the way. China's digital trade exports reached $793.7 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of 10.7% [2][3] - Artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping the infrastructure and business models of digital trade, with predictions that AI applications could drive global trade growth by nearly 40% and increase global GDP by 12% to 13% by 2040 [4][5] Digital Trade Growth - The report indicates that digital delivery trade, which includes remote services like financial services and online education, is becoming increasingly important in international trade [3] - Digital ordering trade is the fastest-growing segment, with an export scale of $2.62 trillion and an annual growth rate of 16.8% [2][3] Challenges and Opportunities - Developing countries face barriers in international trade, particularly for women, but digital trade offers flexible employment opportunities [3] - The need for cross-national policy collaboration is emphasized to enhance the scientific, stable, cooperative, and inclusive nature of digital trade policies [7][8] AI and Global Governance - AI is expected to evolve from an "efficiency tool" to an "ecosystem operating system," promoting intelligent, inclusive, and compliant global digital trade [5][6] - The governance of AI faces challenges such as data sovereignty disputes and fragmented regulatory standards, necessitating a collaborative approach among governments, businesses, and international organizations [5][6] Policy Recommendations - The report suggests exploring mechanisms for regulatory coordination and technical standard recognition to facilitate cross-border data flow while ensuring data sovereignty and privacy [7][8] - It advocates for a balanced strategy that prioritizes both development and security in digital trade, including the establishment of a cross-national data security governance framework [8]