Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for soda ash has seen a significant decline, with the main contract dropping by 2.26% to 1255.00 CNY/ton, indicating a weak overall market condition [1] Supply and Inventory - Supply remains high, but inventory continues to decrease, maintaining a weak market structure [1] - Weekly production of soda ash has increased to 77.69 thousand tons, the highest point this year, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 4.19% [1] - Soda ash production facilities are operating stably with no maintenance news, and production is expected to further increase in the future [1] Demand Analysis - The number of cold repairs in glass production lines remains unchanged, keeping overall production at a low level, with signs of just-in-time production and profit recovery mainly driven by rising spot prices [1] - The demand for soda ash remains stable, but the photovoltaic glass market is flat, and with the acceleration of production cuts in photovoltaic glass, demand is expected to weaken [1] Market Outlook - According to Everbright Futures, the pressure from new production capacity will further widen the supply of soda ash, although the current fundamentals have a limited impact on the market [1] - Future macroeconomic stimulus policies, anti-involution, and environmental factors will continue to interact with the weak fundamentals of soda ash, leading to limited upward and downward price movements, with overall trends weaker than that of glass [1]
基本面持续博弈 纯碱期价上下方空间都将受限
Jin Tou Wang·2025-09-30 08:00