政府停摆风险下 贵金属多头格局明确

Market Overview - The US dollar index experienced fluctuations and fell below the 98 mark, closing down 0.24% at 97.94 due to concerns over a potential government shutdown [1][2] - Spot gold surged past the $3800 mark during Asian trading and reached a new historical high above $3830 during US trading, ultimately closing up 1.95% at $3833.76 per ounce [1][2] - Spot silver also saw an increase during Asian trading but entered a range-bound phase, closing up 1.84% at $46.91 per ounce [1][2] Economic Indicators - The National Association of Realtors reported that the existing home sales index rose by 4% in August, reaching 74.7, significantly exceeding market expectations and marking the highest level in five months [3] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester indicated inflationary pressures, particularly in the service sector [3] - European Central Bank Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf stated that the ECB's rate-cutting cycle is nearing its end, emphasizing the need for vigilance regarding the full impact of US tariffs on EU imports [3] - Bank of Japan Policy Board member Asahi Noguchi noted that Japan is steadily moving towards its 2% inflation target, increasing the necessity for policy rate adjustments [3] Trading Strategies - The imminent risk of a US government shutdown has heightened market risk aversion, while the long-term outlook remains bullish for gold due to expected Fed rate cuts, expanding global government debt cycles, and a weakening dollar [4] - The bullish sentiment for silver is reinforced by its commodity and financial attributes, with tightening liquidity leading to potential short squeeze risks in COMEX silver contracts [4] - The Shanghai silver VIX index surged to a new high since May, indicating increased volatility in the silver market [4]