国庆节后A股行情如何演绎？券商热议日历效应

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently experiencing a sideways adjustment around the 3850-point level, with increased volatility due to the tug-of-war between bulls and bears. There is a divergence in opinions among brokerage firms regarding whether the market has reached a temporary bottom and the direction of the market post-National Day holiday [2] Group 1: Calendar Effect - The "calendar effect" refers to abnormal return differences associated with specific dates in financial markets, with seasonal and holiday effects being significant manifestations. For the National Day holiday, it is noted that low-valued and early-cycle sectors tend to perform better in the fourth quarter, provided that macroeconomic expectations remain stable [2] - Historical data from 2010 onwards indicates that the A-share market typically experiences a downturn in the ten days leading up to the National Day holiday, followed by a significant rebound in the five days after the holiday, with an average increase and higher win rates for small-cap stocks compared to large-cap stocks [3] - Analysis from Tianfeng Securities shows that the median return for the market in the five trading days before the holiday is -0.81%, while the first five days after the holiday see a median return of 2.27% with an 80% win rate [4] Group 2: Macro Perspective - Brokerages are analyzing the A-share market's performance post-National Day from a macro perspective, focusing on global policy interactions, domestic economic data, and medium to long-term strategic layouts. Key concerns include overseas variables and domestic policy windows [5] - Huatai Securities highlights that overseas policy and economic variables, such as new tariffs announced by the Trump administration and upcoming U.S. economic data releases, may influence investor sentiment and risk appetite [5] - The market is expected to see a marginal recovery in trading willingness post-holiday, with potential policy and performance layout opportunities arising from significant upcoming political meetings and corporate earnings reports [5] Group 3: Investment Direction - Resource stocks are shifting from a cyclical to a dividend-oriented valuation approach due to supply constraints and global geopolitical uncertainties, while leading Chinese manufacturing firms are expected to leverage their market share for pricing power and profit margin improvements [6] - The A-share and Hong Kong markets may benefit from long-term policy layouts and a relatively loose liquidity environment in October, with opportunities concentrated in the technology growth sector for A-shares and unique market structures for Hong Kong stocks [6] - The market is anticipated to enter a consolidation phase, waiting for the next policy trigger, as the A-share market has already accumulated significant gains since the June 23 rally [7]