智通财经网·2025-09-30 09:13Group 1: Granolas Sector Analysis - The Granolas sector, which includes major European companies, has underperformed the European market index by approximately 25% since early 2024, with its market capitalization dropping from 27% to 20% of the overall European market [2] - Despite weak stock performance, Granolas' earnings have not deteriorated, with an expected earnings growth rate of 8% for 2025, while overall European market earnings are projected to remain flat [2] - The valuation issues of Granolas have been corrected, with the current price-to-earnings ratio at a 6% discount compared to the median of the past 10 years, indicating a return to reasonable levels [2] - Granolas' free cash flow yield has improved, and cash reserves on the balance sheet increased from €91 billion in 2023 to €106 billion in 2024, with stock buybacks projected to rise from €23 billion in 2023 to an annualized €36 billion in 2025 [2] Group 2: French Stock Market Outlook - The French stock market has underperformed the market by about 15% over the past two years, with bank stocks lagging behind Eurozone peers by as much as 30% [4] - Currently, the French stock market is trading at a significant discount compared to the STOXX 50 index, a situation historically seen only during major crises [4] - Morgan Stanley believes that the long-term bond yields in France are unlikely to continue rising, and the negative impact from the government's failure to pass a confidence vote may temporarily dissipate, presenting attractive investment opportunities [4] - Despite high uncertainty, including potential future confidence votes, there is a possibility of reaching a budget plan acceptable to the market, and any negative impact from re-elections on risk assets may be short-lived [4]