刚刚！黄金，大跳水！

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices follows a significant increase, with gold reaching a new high of $3,871 per ounce before dropping to approximately $3,800 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of about 0.8% [2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The initial rise in gold prices was driven by concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, which increased gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][6]. - The recent price fluctuations are attributed to profit-taking at the end of September, with speculation that Chinese traders may be reducing their positions ahead of the October holiday [6]. - Gold has seen a cumulative increase of approximately 45% this year, potentially marking the largest annual gain since 1979 [6]. Group 2: Economic Influences - The deadlock in Washington regarding short-term funding has heightened fears of a government shutdown, which could impede the release of critical economic data necessary for assessing the U.S. economy [6]. - Central bank demand for gold and the Federal Reserve's potential return to interest rate cuts have provided additional support for gold prices [6]. Group 3: Future Projections - UBS has a bullish outlook on the gold market, predicting that gold prices could rise to $4,200 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by factors such as a weaker dollar, significant central bank purchases, and increased ETF investments [6]. - UBS recommends a 5% allocation of gold in investment portfolios, highlighting its low correlation with stocks and bonds, making it a useful hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks [6].