Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that U.S. Treasury prices are expected to rise for the third consecutive quarter due to potential government shutdowns that may suppress economic growth, increasing investor demand for U.S. Treasuries [1] - U.S. Treasury yields have generally decreased, with a reported return of 1.5% for the current quarter and over 5% for the first three quarters of 2025, potentially marking the best performance since 2020 [1] - A government shutdown could disrupt operations and delay key economic data releases, which historically leads to an increase in long-term Treasury prices [1] Group 2 - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell by 1 basis point to 4.13%, while the 2-year Treasury yield is at 3.60%, close to its lowest level in the past year [2] - Market sentiment reflects a shift towards U.S. Treasuries due to concerns over a prolonged government shutdown potentially leading to economic slowdown, resulting in a flattening yield curve [2] - Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut are contributing to the overall upward trend in U.S. Treasuries, with an 80% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October and a similar possibility in December [2]
政府关门危机逼近 美债有望连续三季度上涨
智通财经网·2025-09-30 11:08