Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed positive performance on the last trading day of Q3, influenced by the central bank's proactive management of liquidity, but the market remains complex with mixed bullish and bearish signals as it heads into Q4 [1][3]. Market Performance - On September 30, all government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year bond rising by 0.10% to 113.90, the 10-year bond up by 0.17%, the 5-year bond increasing by 0.11%, and the 2-year bond gaining 0.04% [1]. - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with the 10-year bond "25附息国债11" down by 1.75 basis points to 1.79%, and the 5-year bond "25附息国债14" down by 2.5 basis points to 1.60% [1][2]. Market Sentiment and Liquidity - There has been a shift in market sentiment towards the positive, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets ahead of the holiday, leading to a recovery in the bond market [3]. - The liquidity environment is stable and supportive for the bond market, with the central bank's actions, including a 14-day reverse repo operation, boosting market confidence [3]. Outlook for Q4 - Analysts suggest that despite historical trends indicating rising rates post-holidays, the current market dynamics are more complex, necessitating caution from investors [5]. - The bond market may experience a mix of recovery and adjustment in Q4, with stable demand potentially leading to a downward trend in rates, while redemption pressures could cause fluctuations [5].
三季度债券市场平稳收官 跨季资金宽松无虞
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-09-30 13:35