刚刚！黄金 大跳水！

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices follows a significant increase, driven by concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown and profit-taking by traders after a month of gains [1][5]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - On September 30, after the A-share market closed, spot gold prices experienced a significant drop, initially rising over 1% to reach a new high of $3,871 per ounce before falling approximately 0.8% to around $3,800 per ounce [1]. - The gold market has seen a cumulative increase of about 45% this year, potentially marking the largest annual gain since 1979 [5]. - Concerns regarding the U.S. government shutdown and its impact on economic data releases have heightened gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [5]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Saxo Bank's commodity strategist Ole Hansen noted that profit-taking at the end of the month and potential actions by Chinese traders to reduce positions ahead of the October holiday contributed to the price drop [5]. - Central bank demand for gold and the Federal Reserve's potential return to interest rate cuts have provided support for gold prices [5]. - UBS forecasts a bullish outlook for the gold market, predicting prices could rise to $4,200 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by factors such as a weaker dollar, significant central bank purchases, and increased ETF investments [5].