S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Records Annual Gain in July 2025

Core Insights - The July 2025 results indicate a significant slowdown in the U.S. housing market, with national home prices rising only 1.7% year-over-year, down from 1.9% in June, marking one of the weakest annual increases in the past decade [2][9] - Home values have stagnated when adjusted for inflation, resulting in a real housing wealth decline for homeowners for the third consecutive month [2][8] - The housing market is experiencing a shift from the rapid price increases seen during the pandemic to more modest growth rates, aligning closer to inflation levels [8] Year-over-Year Performance - The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index reported a 1.7% annual gain for July, down from 1.9% in June [9] - The 10-City Composite increased by 2.3%, down from 2.7%, while the 20-City Composite posted a 1.8% gain, down from 2.2% [9][12] Geographic Trends - New York led major metros with a 6.4% annual gain in July, followed by Chicago at 6.2% and Cleveland at 4.5% [4][10] - Conversely, several Sun Belt and West Coast markets, such as Tampa and Phoenix, are experiencing declines, with Tampa down 2.8% and Phoenix down 0.9% year-over-year [4][10] Monthly Changes - The U.S. National Index saw a slight decline of 0.2% in July before seasonal adjustment, with 15 out of 20 major metros experiencing month-to-month price declines [5][11] - After seasonal adjustment, the National Index registered a decrease of 0.1%, indicating weak underlying demand even during peak buying season [5][11] Market Dynamics - High mortgage rates and affordability issues are constraining the housing market's recovery, with many previously booming areas now showing signs of cooling [7][8] - The ongoing rotation in regional performance suggests that markets with strong local economies and reasonable prices are outperforming those that have become unaffordable [4][8]