Spotify Price Hikes And New Deals Could Fuel Big Revenue Gains: JP Morgan

Core Viewpoint - Spotify is leveraging global price hikes, new label agreements, and product enhancements to enhance revenue, expand margins, and drive long-term growth [1][2] Revenue and Growth Drivers - Strong subscriber momentum and fresh content offerings are expected to lead to steady revenue acceleration and profitability gains through 2026 [1] - JP Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth raised the price forecast for Spotify from $740 to $805, citing pricing power and new label agreements as key long-term growth drivers [2] Pricing Strategy - Spotify raised prices in over 100 countries in August, impacting approximately 25% to 30% of premium subscription revenue [3] - These price hikes are estimated to generate around 380 million euros in annualized revenue [3] Subscriber Metrics - Anmuth forecasts foreign-exchange-neutral ARPU growth of 0.5% in Q3, 2% in Q4, and 4.6% in 2026, an increase from 2.3% in 2025 [3] Churn and Market Position - Churn is expected to remain limited due to Spotify's scale, content depth, and personalization features [4] - A potential U.S. price increase by late 2025 or early 2026 could provide additional upside [4] Label Agreements - Spotify has signed multi-year agreements with Sony, adding to previous deals with Universal and Warner [4] Product Enhancements - The introduction of a "Superfan Tier" and lossless audio for premium subscribers in over 50 markets is anticipated [5] - New features in the free tier, such as expanded on-demand capabilities and personalized playlists, are expected to enhance user engagement and drive premium conversions [5] Margin and Cash Flow Projections - Anmuth projects gross margins to reach 32.8% in 2026, with operating income margins of 13.9% and free cash flow of 3.5 billion euros, a 19% increase [6] - Revenue contributions from audiobooks, Marketplace, and advertising are expected to support margin expansion [6] Overall Outlook - Anmuth has become incrementally more positive on Spotify's outlook, forecasting 2026 revenue growth of 14.1% year over year in constant currency, driven by a 9% increase in premium subscribers and higher ARPU [7]