Forecasting two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2025, says Binky Chadha

Market Overview - The Dow is on track for its fifth consecutive positive quarter, while the S&P and NASDAQ are pacing for their seventh positive quarter in eight [1] - Macro growth indicators show the Atlanta Fed estimating growth at almost 4% and other economists at nearly 3% for the quarter, indicating a positive outlook despite initial fears [2] Macro Data and Earnings - There has been a significant increase in macro data surprises, with 15 months of positive surprises leading to a shift in expectations regarding recession risks [3][4] - Current equity positioning reflects a cautious stance among fundamentals-based investors, who are primarily concerned about cyclical risks and earnings [5] Earnings Growth Expectations - Investors are currently positioned for 1-2% earnings growth, while actual earnings growth was 10% last quarter, with expectations for slight acceleration this quarter [6] - The impact of tariffs on earnings is relatively small, with only 17 percentage points of S&P 500 earnings directly affected, and Apple accounting for 5 percentage points of that [8][9] Tariffs and Inflation - The direct impact of tariffs has been overestimated, with evidence suggesting that half of the impact has already occurred, leading to a reassessment of future risks [10]