UNP Strong on Dividends & Buybacks Amid Freight Weakness

Core Insights - Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) is facing challenges due to normalized e-commerce sales, soft consumer markets, geopolitical uncertainty, and high inflation, leading to weak volumes and reduced fuel-surcharge revenues [1][9] Financial Performance - The operating ratio is under pressure due to revenue weaknesses, with operating expenses declining by 3% year over year in 2024 as UNP implements cost-cutting measures and improves efficiency through longer trains and increased freight velocity [2][9] - In 2023, UNP generated a free cash flow of $1.54 billion and returned $3.9 billion to shareholders, with dividends increased twice in 2021 and further raised to $1.34 per share in July 2024 and $1.38 per share in July 2025 [3][9] Merger and Acquisition Activity - UNP has agreed to acquire Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) in a stock and cash transaction, expected to close by early 2027, which is anticipated to be accretive to adjusted EPS in the second full year post-closing and deliver high single-digit growth thereafter [4][5] - The merger will create a combined entity valued at $250 billion, generating $2.75 billion in annualized synergies, enhancing freight competitiveness, improving transit times, and expanding intermodal services [6][9] Labor Relations - A historic agreement has been secured between SMART-TD, the largest U.S. railroad union, and Union Pacific, guaranteeing lifetime job protection for members in train and yardmaster roles amid the proposed merger, preventing involuntary furloughs and ensuring preferential hiring [7] Industry Developments - Other rail industry updates include a partnership between Canadian National Railway (CNI) and CSX Corporation to launch an intermodal rail service into Nashville, TN, enhancing freight connectivity across North America [8]