巴基斯坦政策利率保持在11%不变

Core Viewpoint - The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has decided to maintain the policy rate at 11% to balance the current economic situation and address macroeconomic uncertainties caused by recent flooding [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Inflation in Pakistan is showing a relatively moderate trend from July to August 2025, despite a slowdown in the rate of decline [1] - Key economic indicators, such as large-scale manufacturing, are signaling a strengthening economic growth momentum [1] - The flooding has significantly impacted the economy, particularly affecting the agricultural sector on the supply side [1] Group 2: Future Projections - The SBP anticipates that the flooding will lead to a higher overall inflation level and current account deficit than previously expected for the fiscal year 2026 [1] - Economic growth is projected to slow down compared to earlier expectations due to the adverse effects of the flooding [1] - The SBP believes that the current policy rate of 11% is sufficient to stabilize inflation within the medium-term target range of 5%-7% [1] Group 3: Policy Rate History - In March 2023, the SBP raised the policy rate to a high of 20% due to increasing inflationary pressures, maintaining it above 20% for 15 months [2] - The policy rate was subsequently lowered to 11% in June 2025, marking the lowest level since 2022, and has remained unchanged since then [2] - The SBP plans to conduct two more policy rate adjustments in the fiscal year 2025, tentatively scheduled for October 27 and December 15 [2]