Dow notches new record close

Market Performance During Government Shutdown - Historically, markets tend to perform at least flat during government shutdowns, with the longest recorded shutdown lasting 35 days [3] - The current administration's willingness to break norms may lead to a more prolonged shutdown, potentially impacting market performance negatively [3] Context of Current Market Conditions - September's market performance was strong, contrary to historical expectations, which raises questions about the reliability of historical patterns during government shutdowns [5] - The absence of a pullback before the shutdown could indicate a different market reaction this time [6] Focus on AI Trade and Consumer Sentiment - The AI trade has been a significant driver of market performance, with major companies like Nvidia contributing positively [9] - Investor focus remains on the sustainability of the AI trade, regardless of consumer and job numbers [10] Technical Indicators and Market Risks - The S&P has gone 105 trading days without testing its 50-day moving average, marking the fourth longest streak since 1990, which may suggest a potential pullback of 3 to 4% [11] - Weakness in consumer-facing sectors, such as restaurants and retailers, could pose risks to the broader market if these trends continue [12][13]