Dot-com Déjà vu: Oracle's $300 Billion AI Bet Feels Familiar

Core Insights - Oracle has made a significant move in the AI arms race by announcing a $300 billion deal to build data centers for OpenAI, which led to a nearly 40% increase in its stock price, adding approximately $300 billion to its market capitalization [3][4] - The remaining performance obligations (RPO) reported by Oracle reached $455 billion, a substantial increase of $317 billion from the previous quarter, primarily due to the OpenAI contract [3][4] - Oracle's cloud infrastructure revenue is projected to increase almost tenfold over the next five years, aligning it with major players like Microsoft and AWS [3][4] Financial Performance and Projections - Oracle expects $18 billion in revenue from its cloud infrastructure business for the current year, an increase of $10.4 billion, with capital expenditures projected at $35 billion [8] - The historical profit margin for Oracle's investments has drastically decreased, with $1 invested in property, plant, and equipment yielding only $0.36 in profit compared to over $2.6 previously [5][8] - To meet its ambitious revenue target of $144 billion by 2030, Oracle may need to invest at least $185 billion, which is 7.5 times its trailing 12 months EBITDA [10] Market Comparisons - The AI data center business is showing lower returns compared to established cloud computing businesses, with competitors like Coreweave and Amazon's AWS reporting significantly higher returns on investment [12][8] - Coreweave reported a return of $0.15 for each dollar of property, plant, and equipment invested, while AWS earned $0.46 for every dollar [12][8] Industry Context - The current environment is reminiscent of the late 1990s tech bubble, with aggressive capital spending and questionable financing capabilities among companies like Oracle and OpenAI [2][7] - The aggressive bidding for large contracts, such as Oracle's deal with OpenAI, raises concerns about the sustainability of such investments, similar to the overbuilding of fiber infrastructure during the telecom bubble [4][14]