美债今年强势反弹 政府关门阴影下避险需求再起

Core Insights - U.S. Treasury bonds have shown strong performance this year, with investors accelerating purchases of this risk-free asset as the risk of a federal government shutdown looms [1] - The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US) is expected to see a total return of 2.72% this quarter, with a year-to-date increase of 5.7%, marking its best performance since 2020 [1] - Long-term Treasury yields have been declining, with the 10-year yield down 45.2 basis points to approximately 4.1% year-to-date, compared to 4.6% at the beginning of the year [1] Group 1 - Factors driving the strength of U.S. Treasuries include stable supply maintained by Treasury Secretary Yellen, which alleviates market supply-demand pressures, and the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts to support the job market [1] - The attractiveness of bonds as a safe haven has increased amid concerns over economic growth and recession [1] - Historical data indicates that government shutdowns tend to provide short-term benefits to the bond market, with TLT averaging a 0.2% increase in the week following a shutdown [2] Group 2 - If a government shutdown lasts too long, it could create a "data vacuum," delaying the release of key economic indicators and complicating monetary policy and investment decisions [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the duration of the shutdown raises concerns about potential permanent reductions in workforce size by the Trump administration [2]