“黑天鹅”来袭！美国，重大突发！

Group 1 - The risk of a U.S. government shutdown has significantly increased following the Senate's rejection of the Democratic funding bill, with a Republican proposal for a seven-week funding extension set for a vote [1][2] - If Congress fails to pass a temporary funding bill by the deadline, parts of the federal government will shut down, affecting hundreds of thousands of federal employees who may be forced to take unpaid leave [1][2] - The Trump administration has outlined detailed plans for dealing with the shutdown, including the suspension of economic data releases by the Labor Department during the shutdown period [1][4] Group 2 - Analysts warn that the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy due to the potential government shutdown is driving investors towards precious metals, resulting in record-high gold prices [3] - The dollar index has been declining, with a reported value of 97.7704, indicating a potential four-day losing streak [4] - At least eight U.S. cabinet departments have prepared detailed shutdown plans, affecting over 400,000 non-essential employees [4][6] Group 3 - The Department of Health and Human Services has stated that new patients will not be accepted for clinical research during the shutdown, and public health information will be limited [6] - The Labor Department will suspend the release of key economic data, including the non-farm payroll report, which is scheduled for October 3 [6] - The Social Security Administration will place approximately 6,000 of its 51,000 employees on unpaid leave during the shutdown [7] Group 4 - The Department of Veterans Affairs will continue benefits and medical care during the shutdown, but maintenance of cemeteries will cease [8] - The IRS will continue operations during the shutdown due to funding secured through the Inflation Reduction Act, which provides funding until 2031 [8] - Deutsche Bank estimates that a full government shutdown could reduce quarterly annualized GDP growth by approximately 0.2 percentage points per week if 800,000 federal employees are furloughed [8]