Core Insights - M&T Bank Corporation's (MTB) net interest income (NII) is significantly influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate changes, with a recent cut of 25 basis points to a range of 4.00–4.25% and expectations for further cuts by year-end [1][3] Financial Performance - MTB's NII showed modest year-over-year growth in the first half of 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.4% over the five years ending in 2024, driven by disciplined asset repricing and balance sheet optimization [2] - The bank anticipates its 2025 NII to be between $7.0 billion and $7.15 billion, an increase from the reported $6.9 billion in 2024 [3][8] - MTB expects its net interest margin (NIM) to be in the mid-to-high 3.60% range, up from 3.58% reported in 2024 [4][8] - Average loan and lease balances for 2025 are projected to be between $135 billion and $137 billion, while average total deposit balances are expected to be between $162 billion and $164 billion [4][8] Peer Comparison - Peers such as Comerica Incorporated (CMA) and Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) are also experiencing NII growth influenced by interest rate changes, with Comerica showing a CAGR of 3.5% over the last five years and a 6.4% year-over-year increase in the first half of 2025 [5][6] - Fifth Third has maintained a CAGR of 4.2% over five years, with a 5.8% increase in NII in the first half of 2025, and projects a growth of 5.5%–6.5% for 2025 [7]
Will Lower Fed Rates Support MTB's Net Interest Income in 2025?