RBI MPC Meet October 1, 2025 Live: Will RBI repo rate cut or hold?

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is deliberating on potential changes to the benchmark interest rates amid global geopolitical tensions and the impact of US tariffs, with outcomes expected to be announced on October 1, 2025 [1] Expectations - The MPC's decision on benchmark interest rates is highly anticipated, with a report from the State Bank of India (SBI) advocating for a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut as the "optimal choice" [2] - Some analysts predict the committee may maintain the current repo rate of 5.50%, unchanged since a 50 bps reduction in June 2025, as market expectations favor holding the rate steady [2] - Nuvama Institutional Equities indicated that any decision to cut rates would be a close call, reflecting divided opinions among experts [3] - A report from Union Bank of India supports a 25 bps repo rate reduction, citing expectations of a significant downward revision in the inflation forecast for FY26 [3] Inflation - Retail inflation rose to 2.07% in August 2025, up from 1.61% in July, primarily due to higher prices of vegetables, meat, fish, oils, eggs, and personal care items [4] - This marks the first increase in the headline inflation number since November 2024, but it remains below the 4% median rate of the targeted inflation range, leading experts to believe it may prompt a policy interest rate cut next month [4] - The inflation for FY26 was previously projected at 3.1% in the August 2025 MPC meeting [4] Prior MPCs - The MPC has reduced the repo rate by a total of 100 basis points in the ongoing rate cut cycle, with reductions of 25 basis points each in February and April 2025, and 50 basis points in June 2025 [5] - The most recent MPC meeting in August 2025 resulted in the repo rate remaining unchanged [5] Upcoming MPC Schedule - Upcoming RBI MPC meetings are scheduled for December 3, 4, and 5, 2025, and February 4, 5, and 6, 2026 [6]