India holds rates steady at 5.5% in line with forecast as inflation cools

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained its policy rate at 5.5%, aligning with economists' expectations [1] - Inflation has moderated significantly in the first quarter, but growth may decelerate in the second half of the financial year due to global trade uncertainties [2] - The RBI had an opportunity to cut interest rates to stimulate growth, especially after inflation data undershot the target band of 2% to 6% [2] Group 2: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - The U.S. imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports, raising total duties to as high as 50%, significantly affecting sectors like textiles, gems, jewelry, and marine products [3] - Exports to the U.S. account for approximately 2% of India's GDP, with labor-intensive sectors facing potential job losses due to deteriorating business conditions [3] Group 3: Government Response and Domestic Consumption - To mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, the Indian government reduced the goods and services tax (GST) on several items to boost domestic demand ahead of the festive season [4] - India's domestic consumption constitutes over 60% of GDP, making it less reliant on exports, and the GST cuts are expected to alleviate the effects of U.S. tariffs [5] - Goldman Sachs raised its real GDP growth forecast for India to 7.1% for calendar year 2025 and 6.7% for fiscal year 2026, following a better-than-expected GDP growth of 7.8% in the June quarter [5]