Sugar Prices Settle Higher as Dollar Weakness Spurs Short-Covering

Core Insights - Sugar prices have recently increased, reaching 1.5-week highs due to dollar weakness, which has led to short-covering in sugar futures [1] Group 1: Sugar Market Trends - NY sugar futures reached a 4.25-year low last Tuesday, while London sugar hit a 4-year low, continuing a 7-month downtrend driven by expectations of abundant global sugar supplies [2] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits, with a projected shortfall of -231,000 MT, an improvement from -4.88 MMT in 2024/25 [5] Group 2: Production and Supply Factors - Brazil's sugar output in the second half of August increased by +18% year-on-year to 3.872 MT, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar rising to 54.20% from 48.78% the previous year [3] - The USDA projects a record global sugar production of 189.318 MMT for the 2025/26 season, a +4.7% year-on-year increase, with ending stocks expected to rise by 7.5% to 41.188 MMT [6] Group 3: Global Supply Dynamics - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which may not alleviate the country's sugar surplus and could lead to increased exports of up to 4 MMT, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 MMT [4] - StoneX has projected a global sugar surplus of +2.8 MMT for the 2025/26 season, a shift from a deficit of -4.7 MMT in the 2024/25 season [2]