On-Chain Data Shows Bitcoin Far From Peak as Analyst Maps $240K Bull Case

Core Insights - Bitcoin is currently trading below its all-time high of $124k, which is 1.8 times the 2021 peak of $69k, indicating that it has not yet entered a euphoric phase in the current cycle [1] - Analysts suggest that Bitcoin could reach targets of $240k or even $300k, especially as it trades above $100k, a scenario that seemed unlikely during the 2022 bear market [2] - The current market cycle is being closely monitored to see if it follows the historical pattern of the classic four-year halving cycle, with previous peaks occurring in Q4 of the calendar year [3] Market Performance - The current cycle has not yet experienced a euphoric blow-off top, which typically sees year-over-year returns exceeding 5x, as observed in previous cycles [4] - Since 2023, Bitcoin has shown a comparatively shallow drawdown profile, indicating a more stable uptrend [4] - The market has seen two significant pullbacks of approximately 32% in August 2024 and April 2025, attributed to broader market corrections [5] Market Positioning - Bitcoin, despite a market cap exceeding $2 trillion, still represents less than 10% of the precious metals market and less than 0.2% of the global asset base, suggesting significant room for growth [6] - Bitcoin has outperformed gold, appreciating over 80% in gold terms since February 2022, even during the bear market that saw prices drop to $15.6k [6][7]