15万人将离职，75万人无薪休假！美国政府近七年第二次“关门”：GDP每周损失70亿美元，美联储将“蒙眼”做决策

Core Points - The U.S. federal government has shut down for the first time in nearly seven years, affecting approximately 750,000 federal employees who may be forced into unpaid leave [2][4] - The shutdown is expected to delay the release of significant economic data, including the September non-farm payroll report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), complicating decision-making for the Federal Reserve [2][16][18] - The economic impact of the shutdown is projected to be severe, with estimates suggesting a loss of $7 billion in GDP for each week the government remains closed [2][21] Economic Impact - Approximately 750,000 federal employees will face unpaid leave, with a daily payroll cost of about $400 million during the shutdown [4][10] - Essential services such as border protection and air traffic control will continue to operate, but non-essential services funded by Congress may face closures [4][10] - The shutdown could lead to a decline in consumer and investor confidence, further exacerbating economic challenges [21] Political Context - The shutdown reflects ongoing political battles between the two major parties, primarily centered around healthcare funding and budget allocations [11][14] - The core disagreement involves the restoration of nearly $1 trillion in Medicaid funding and the extension of tax credits under the Affordable Care Act [14][15] - Historical context shows that government shutdowns have become a recurring political strategy, with the last significant shutdown lasting 35 days due to disputes over immigration and border funding [11][14] Market Reactions - Historical data indicates that U.S. stock markets may experience short-term pressure during shutdowns, but typically recover in the months following the reopening [23][24] - Gold prices tend to rise during prolonged shutdowns, with significant gains observed in past instances [30] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds generally increases during shutdowns due to heightened investor concerns over fiscal stability [28]