前9个月政府债券发行逾20万亿元

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of government bonds (both national and local) in China has seen significant growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a total issuance of 20.48 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 22.10% for national bonds and 27.60% for local bonds [1][2]. Group 1: Government Bond Issuance - A total of 1,971 government bonds were issued in the first three quarters of 2025, comprising 155 national bonds and 1,816 local bonds [2]. - The total issuance scale for government bonds reached 20.48 trillion yuan, with national bonds at 11.95 trillion yuan and local bonds at 8.53 trillion yuan [1][2]. - The number of national bonds issued increased from 149 in the same period of 2024 to 155 in 2025, while local bonds rose from 1,583 to 1,816 [2]. Group 2: Local Bond Issuance - In the third quarter of 2025, 738 local bonds were issued, totaling 30,779 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 1,169 billion yuan but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4,299 billion yuan [8]. - The average weighted issuance rate for local bonds in the third quarter was 1.9988%, which is higher than the previous quarter but lower than the same period last year [10]. - The average issuance term for local bonds increased to 14.60 years from 13.27 years in the previous year [12]. Group 3: Market Trends and Rates - The average yield on national bonds has generally increased over the first three quarters, with the third quarter average yield at 1.5667% [6]. - The yield on 10-year national bonds decreased by 2.65 basis points to 1.86% as of September 30, 2025, compared to a year-on-year drop of 29.13 basis points [16]. - The trading volume of national bonds in the first three quarters was 79.65 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 24 trillion yuan year-on-year [14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the bond market may face disturbances from fundamental factors and institutional behaviors, but there are opportunities for gradual positioning towards the end of the year [20]. - Expectations for a significant decrease in government bond issuance in October 2025, with a projected total issuance of 19,071 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase but a decrease in net financing [21].