中信证券：商务需求回暖、十一量价齐升，把握酒店行业两条投资主线

Core Viewpoint - The hotel industry is currently experiencing a recovery in demand, a rebalancing of supply and demand, and an accelerated increase in market share for leading companies [1] Demand Side Summary - In September, the industry's RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) saw a continued narrowing of the year-on-year decline, with mid-range and mid-to-high-end hotels performing better than economy hotels, and first-tier and new first-tier cities outperforming lower-tier markets [1] - There is a clear trend of recovery in business demand, with bookings for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays showing an increase in both volume and price, alongside a noticeable trend towards quality consumption [1] - The hotel industry's RevPAR is expected to achieve a year-on-year growth in the mid-single digits [1] Supply Side Summary - Supply is maintaining a rapid growth rate, but there is significant structural differentiation, with economy hotels and lower-tier markets being the main growth drivers [1] - Leading companies are experiencing faster growth compared to their peers [1] Investment Recommendations - The industry is in a bottoming recovery phase, with a recommendation to invest in companies with clear catalysts in the fourth quarter (e.g., retail events like Double Eleven) and those with high certainty of growth in hotel and retail businesses [1] - For the medium term, it is advised to invest in companies that will benefit from the recovery in business demand and the increase in industry concentration, while also focusing on organizational evolution and product optimization [1] - The current valuation of the hotel industry is in a reasonable, slightly low range, with leading companies possessing strong investment value [1]