见证历史！金价 新纪录！商家：“不敢轻易增加库存！”｜“双节”消费看变化

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have reached new highs, with London gold surpassing $3,895 per ounce and COMEX gold exceeding $3,900 per ounce, indicating a strong upward trend in the gold market [1][3][4]. Market Trends - The rising international gold prices have led to record high prices for gold jewelry in the consumer market, coinciding with the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, resulting in a surge in gold consumption [3][4]. - As of October 1, the price of gold jewelry reached 1,130 CNY per gram for brands like Chow Sang Sang and 1,129 CNY per gram for Chow Tai Fook, while the Shenzhen Shui Bei market reported prices of 888 CNY per gram, up from approximately 796 CNY per gram in early September [5][7]. Consumer Behavior - Despite the high prices, many consumers are in a wait-and-see mode, with some merchants noting that the current high prices pose challenges for inventory management, leading to a strategy of purchasing gold only as needed [8][10]. - Merchants are adapting to the market by promoting "fixed-price" gold jewelry, which has higher profit margins, as consumer preferences shift towards self-indulgence [8]. Price Dynamics - The gap between gold jewelry selling prices and buyback prices has widened significantly, with a current difference of over 30 CNY per gram compared to the historical range of 10-15 CNY [10]. - Analysts predict that gold prices may continue to rise, driven by factors such as a weakening dollar and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10][11]. Future Projections - UBS forecasts a bullish outlook for the gold market, predicting prices could reach $4,200 per ounce by mid-2026, influenced by central bank purchases and increased ETF investments [11][14]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of $4,000 per ounce for gold by mid-2026, with potential for prices to exceed $4,500 per ounce under certain conditions [14].