NCE平台:油价稳定背后的逻辑

Core Viewpoint - The global oil market is facing potential oversupply risks, yet benchmark oil prices have remained stable, contrary to predictions of a significant drop to the $40-50 per barrel range, due to a discrepancy between actual supply-demand dynamics and market sentiment [1][2] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Major economies are continuing to push energy sanctions, disrupting the export balance of some oil-producing countries, complicating the global supply-demand structure [1] - Despite expectations of weak demand, oil imports from major Asian economies have been increasing since spring, supporting prices even if some are for strategic reserves rather than direct refining [1][2] Group 2: Inventory and Consumption Data - Current floating oil storage levels are below the highs of 2022, and OECD country inventories are below the five-year average, indicating relatively healthy overall consumption [2] - A decline in fuel exports from Asia suggests that domestic demand remains strong, contradicting the narrative of demand peaking [2] Group 3: Market Predictions and Influences - Over-reliance on electric vehicle sales forecasts and GDP slowdown trends to predict oil prices does not fully capture market dynamics [2] - OPEC+ has limited capacity for production adjustments, and some U.S. shale oil companies are slowing their production growth due to low profit expectations, which restricts downward pressure on oil prices [2] - Geopolitical factors and resilient demand are expected to continue supporting oil price stability in the near term, making a rapid formation of a "bear market" unlikely without sudden shocks [2]