黄金期货 前三季度大涨超47%

Core Insights - The global commodity futures market has shown significant divergence in performance during the first three quarters of the year, with the CRB price index closing at 300.6 points, reflecting a cumulative increase of 1.31% [1][3] - Precious metals, particularly U.S. platinum futures, have seen substantial gains, with platinum futures rising by 77.45%, leading the performance among other commodity futures [1][3] - The outlook for the fourth quarter suggests that the macro environment for commodities may stabilize due to the onset of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, although the divergence in commodity performance is expected to continue due to fundamental differences among various commodities [1][5] Commodity Performance - Among the 32 major global commodity futures, 12 commodities achieved positive returns in the first three quarters, representing 37.5% of the total [3] - Precious metals such as COMEX silver, COMEX gold, and U.S. palladium futures also recorded significant gains, with increases of 60.12%, 47.35%, and 42.11% respectively [3] - Conversely, several soft commodities experienced notable declines, with ICE orange juice futures dropping by 50.23%, and ICE cocoa futures down by 41.91% [4][5] Market Analysis - Analysts indicate that the recent surge in platinum prices is driven by both macroeconomic and supply-demand factors, with a projected supply-demand gap for platinum expected to reach a historically high level by 2025 [5] - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts are anticipated to continue, with expectations of two more cuts in the fourth quarter, which may support the prices of gold and other assets [5][6] - The outlook for oil prices suggests a potential decline due to increasing supply and seasonal demand drops, with Brent crude oil futures expected to trade between $59 and $74 per barrel [6] Sector-Specific Insights - In the copper market, the initiation of a preventive rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve is expected to bolster overseas demand, while supply constraints due to mining accidents may support copper prices, projected to range between $9,800 and $11,000 per ton in the fourth quarter [7]