Bancroft: The defense industry has outperformed the S&P in shutdowns

Core Viewpoint - The defense sector is expected to experience short-term fluctuations due to potential government shutdowns, but long-term funding for critical defense programs will remain stable [1][3]. Group 1: Impact of Government Shutdown - A short government shutdown is unlikely to have a significant impact on the defense sector, as legacy programs will continue to receive funding [1]. - Prolonged shutdowns, similar to the one experienced from 2018 to 2019, could have more substantial effects, particularly on new program procurements and research and development funding [2]. - Historically, the aerospace and defense industry has outperformed the S&P during past shutdowns, indicating resilience in the sector [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Companies like Hexel, which produces composite materials for defense systems, and Boeing, known for its weapons systems and commercial aircraft, are seen as strong investment opportunities [5][6]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and China, are expected to create a favorable environment for defense spending [6][8]. - Companies involved in undersea and shipbuilding, such as Graham Corporation, are likely to benefit from increased defense spending in the Asia-Pacific region [8]. Group 3: Long-term Trends - The defense sector, particularly in areas related to kinetic weapon systems and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), is expected to perform well in the long term despite potential short-term disruptions [10]. - The IT space and government services may face more significant impacts from shutdowns, but the overall defense industry remains robust [10].