RBI’s pause: When monetary flexibility meets growth uncertainty

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Inflation Outlook - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained its policy rates and neutral stance despite calls for easing, indicating a significant moderation in inflation [2][5] - RBI lowered its inflation estimate for FY26 to 2.6% from 3.1% and for the first quarter of FY27 to 4.5% from 4.9%, reflecting a more benign inflation outlook [3] - The current real policy rate stands at 1%, below the estimated neutral real rates of 1.4% to 1.9%, suggesting limited space for rate cuts [4] Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - RBI raised its FY26 GDP growth estimate to 6.8% from 6.5%, primarily due to a strong 7.8% GDP growth in the first quarter [6] - However, the GDP growth estimate for the second half of FY26 was lowered by 10 basis points to 6.3%, citing the negative impact of US tariffs on Indian exports [7] - The ongoing negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement between India and the US could potentially reduce tariffs from 50% to 25%, which is crucial for growth [11] Group 3: Internal Deliberations and Future Outlook - There was a divergence of views among RBI members regarding the monetary policy stance, with some advocating for a shift to an accommodative stance [8] - The RBI's decision to pause on rate cuts is influenced by the need to assess the impact of fiscal stimulus measures, such as GST rate cuts, on consumption [12] - Clarity on growth risks, including trade negotiations and domestic consumption trends, is expected by the December policy meeting [13]