Ignore the Shutdown – Watch the Jobs Picture

Government Shutdown and Market Impact - The recent U.S. government shutdown is viewed as inconsequential for Wall Street, with historical data showing that shutdowns typically last about a week and have minimal impact on stock movements [1][2] - Over a dozen shutdowns have occurred since 1980, averaging one every three years, reinforcing the notion that they are largely a temporary distraction for investors [2] Labor Market and Consumer Confidence - The Conference Board's September survey indicates a decline in consumer optimism, with assessments of business conditions and job availability reaching new lows [6][7] - ADP's latest report revealed a loss of 32,000 jobs, contrary to expectations of a gain, marking the worst performance since March 2023 [8][9] - Seasonal hiring is projected to be the weakest in years, with retail hiring expected to fall below 500,000 positions in the last quarter of 2025, the lowest since 2009 [10][11] Economic Disparities - There is a growing divide between high-income and low-income households, with the top 10% accounting for 49.2% of U.S. spending, the highest since 1989 [13][14] - The economy is bifurcating into a booming AI Economy, which saw a ~30% investment increase in the first half of 2025, and a stagnant Everything Else Economy, which grew only 0.1% [15][16] Investment Opportunities in AI and Robotics - AI stocks are significantly outperforming non-tech stocks, with an 86% increase in AI/robotics ETFs compared to a 12% rise in non-tech proxies over the past year [16][17] - Investment strategies focusing on AI technology leaders are recommended as a means to thrive in the current economic landscape [19]