Stocks Pressured as Government Shutdown Looms

Economic and Market Overview - The US government faces a potential shutdown if lawmakers do not pass a spending bill or continuing resolution by the evening, which could lead to widespread employee dismissals in government programs not aligned with President Trump's priorities [1] - President Trump has ordered tariffs of 10% on softwood timber and lumber imports, and 25% on kitchen cabinets and other wood products, effective October 14, with some increases starting January 1 [2] - The S&P 500 Index is down -0.17%, the Dow Jones is down -0.02%, and the Nasdaq 100 is down -0.30%, reflecting market pressure due to the risk of a government shutdown [6] Corporate Earnings and Expectations - More than 22% of S&P 500 companies have provided guidance for Q3 earnings that are expected to exceed analysts' expectations, the highest in a year, with an overall expected earnings growth of +6.9% for Q3 [7] - Paychex reported Q1 revenue of $1.54 billion, which met expectations, but the stock fell more than 6% following the announcement [13] - Vail Resorts reported a Q4 loss per share of -$5.08, wider than the consensus estimate of -$4.73, leading to a decline of more than -4% in its stock [14] Economic Indicators and Forecasts - The Chicago PMI unexpectedly fell -0.9 to 40.6, weaker than the expected increase to 43.3, indicating potential economic weakness [3] - The August JOLTS job openings are expected to increase by +19,000 to 7.200 million, while the Conference Board's consumer confidence index is anticipated to fall -1.4 to 96.0 [8] - The September nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by +51,000, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.3% [8] International Market Movements - Overseas stock markets are mixed, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.14%, China's Shanghai Composite rising +0.52%, and Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 down -0.25% [9] Interest Rates and Bond Markets - December 10-year T-notes are up +4 ticks, with the yield down -1.0 bp to 4.129%, driven by safe-haven demand amid stock market weakness [10] - European government bond yields are rising, with the 10-year German bund yield up +0.8 bp to 2.715% [11]