有色金属行业稳增长方案发布，多家华尔街投行上调铜价预测

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with seven other departments, has issued a plan for the non-ferrous metals industry aiming for an average annual growth of 5% in value-added output from 2025 to 2026, with a target of increasing the production of ten non-ferrous metals by approximately 1.5% annually, and achieving a breakthrough of 20 million tons in recycled metal production [1] Group 1: Industry Growth Targets - The plan sets a target for the non-ferrous metals industry to achieve an average annual growth of 5% in value-added output from 2025 to 2026 [1] - The production of ten non-ferrous metals is expected to grow by around 1.5% annually during the same period [1] - The plan emphasizes positive progress in domestic resource development for copper, aluminum, lithium, and aims for recycled metal production to exceed 20 million tons [1] Group 2: Copper Market Insights - Since the beginning of 2025, copper prices have increased by 20%, with the London Metal Exchange three-month copper price rising by 2% to $10,409 per ton [1] - The U.S. Comex October contract for copper closed up 2.6% at $4.841 per pound, marking the best settlement price since July 30 [1] - Several Wall Street investment banks have raised their copper price forecasts, with Bank of America increasing its 2026 copper price prediction by 11% to $11,313 per ton [1] - JPMorgan has significantly raised its fourth-quarter LME copper price forecast from $9,350 per ton to $11,000, anticipating a supply shortage exceeding 200,000 tons in the fourth quarter [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Huayuan Securities reports that frequent disruptions in copper supply may shift the copper supply-demand balance from tight equilibrium to shortage [3] - The expectation of a rising copper price cycle is supported by the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting phase and the domestic demand peak during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [3]