克而瑞地产研究：10月新房供应回调预期成交热度回落 近8成城市以主城为供应主力

Core Insights - The overall enthusiasm of real estate companies for launching new projects in October has steadily declined, with a 41% month-on-month decrease and an 18% year-on-year decrease in supply across 28 cities [1][2][3] - First-tier cities experienced a significant drop in supply, with a 50% reduction month-on-month and a 27% year-on-year decrease, particularly in Shanghai, which saw an 84% year-on-year decline [3][6] - Second-tier cities showed a similar trend, with approximately 90% of cities experiencing a month-on-month decline, while a few cities like Ningbo and Chongqing managed to achieve growth [3][4] - Third and fourth-tier cities saw a slight recovery, with a 47% month-on-month increase in supply, largely driven by a surge in Quanzhou [4][10] - The supply structure is shifting towards improvement demand, with 57% of the supply categorized as improvement, 29% as basic needs, and 14% as high-end [7][10] Supply Dynamics - In October, the total expected supply of new residential properties across 28 cities is estimated at 5.77 million square meters, reflecting a 41% decrease from the previous month and an 18% decrease year-on-year [2][3] - First-tier cities are expected to supply 1.22 million square meters, with Shanghai's supply dropping to a record low of 9,000 square meters, marking an 85% year-on-year decline [3][6] - Among second-tier cities, 19 cities are expected to supply 4.16 million square meters, with a 40% month-on-month decrease and an 18% year-on-year decrease [3][4] Market Trends - The market is expected to maintain a low-level consolidation trend in new home transactions due to the steady supply and high base from the previous year, which may lead to an expanding year-on-year decline [1][11] - The average absorption rate for projects in 28 key cities is projected to be 34%, down 7 percentage points month-on-month and 4 percentage points year-on-year [11][12] - Cities like Hangzhou are expected to remain hot due to strong purchasing power and high-quality improvement housing, while others like Nanning and Chongqing are struggling with low absorption rates [11][12]