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国金证券-步步高-002251-转型精选型零售,区域龙头价值重估-250930
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-02 04:42

Group 1: Industry Insights - The retail industry has significant growth opportunities due to the rigid and large demand for offline retail, which still accounts for 70% of consumption despite the rise of e-commerce [1] - In underdeveloped markets like Hunan, the online penetration rate is relatively low, indicating potential for growth in offline retail [1] - There is a scarcity of quality supply in traditional supermarkets, creating space for new retail formats to thrive [1] Group 2: Company Strategies - The company has implemented measures for transformation, including eliminating entry fees for procurement, restoring selection authority, and focusing on high-quality products, particularly processed foods to cater to aging and declining birth rates [2] - Targeting younger demographics has been a key strategy to increase average transaction value, alongside enhancing employee benefits to improve service quality [2] - The dual model of special supermarkets and department stores provides lower rental costs and stronger customer acquisition capabilities [2] Group 3: Financial Projections - The company is expected to turn profitable in 2024, with investment income reaching 2.9 billion yuan, while the main business will become the primary driver of performance in 2025 [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.183 billion, 6.953 billion, and 8.034 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 50.7%, 34.2%, and 15.5% respectively [3] - The forecasted net profit for the same period is 364 million, 337 million, and 505 million yuan, with significant growth in non-recurring net profit expected [3]