Where are Ethanol and Coal Prices Heading?

Core Insights - Ethanol prices have been trending higher since early 2024, with Chicago ethanol swaps reaching $1.87 per gallon in late September 2025 after a significant decline from a high of $3.2375 per gallon in November 2021 [2][4] - Coal prices have been in a bearish trend since reaching a high of $465 per ton in March 2022, currently trading in a sideways consolidation between $86 and $127.85 per ton since July 2023 [5][6] - The price movements of coal and ethanol are influenced by crude oil prices, which have a bearish bias, indicating a correlation between these energy commodities [8][9] Ethanol Market - Chicago ethanol swaps experienced a low of $0.8450 per gallon in April 2020 due to the pandemic, followed by a recovery and subsequent rally [2][4] - The monthly chart indicates an over 283% rally in ethanol prices from the pandemic low to the high in November 2021, followed by a 55.4% decline to $1.4450 per gallon in February 2024 [4] Coal Market - Rotterdam coal futures hit a pandemic low of $40.30 per metric ton in April 2020, followed by a significant rally to $465 per ton in March 2022, before entering a bearish trend [5][6] - The coal market has shown a sideways trend with a bearish bias since July 2023, with prices fluctuating between $86 and $127.85 per ton [6] Crude Oil Influence - The price patterns of ethanol and coal reflect the movements in crude oil prices, which have been trading between $55.12 and under $80 per barrel in 2025 [9] - While ethanol shows a slightly bullish bias, coal and petroleum prices exhibit a marginally bearish bias, indicating the interconnectedness of these energy markets [9]