Nat-Gas Prices Gain on Anticipation of Colder US Weather

Group 1: Natural Gas Prices and Demand - November Nymex natural gas prices closed up +1.10%, reaching a 2.25-month high due to expectations of colder weather increasing heating demand [1] - Forecasts indicate a cooler trend in the US for October 6-10, with a general cooler risk expected for October 10-14 [1] Group 2: Production and Supply Factors - US natural gas production is near record highs, with the EIA raising its 2025 production forecast by +0.2% to 106.63 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day) [2] - US (lower-48) dry gas production was reported at 107.9 bcf/day, reflecting a +5.5% year-over-year increase [3] - The number of active US natural gas drilling rigs decreased by 1 to 117 rigs, slightly below the 2-year high of 124 rigs [6] Group 3: Demand and Inventory Insights - Lower-48 state gas demand was recorded at 70.4 bcf/day, showing a -1.3% year-over-year decline [3] - Natural gas inventories rose by 75 bcf, slightly above market consensus but below the 5-year weekly average, indicating adequate supplies [5] - As of September 28, European gas storage was 83% full, compared to a 5-year seasonal average of 89% [5] Group 4: Electricity Output - US electricity output increased by +2.3% year-over-year to 85,663 GWh for the week ending September 20, contributing positively to gas prices [4] - Over the 52-week period ending September 20, US electricity output rose by +2.85% year-over-year to 4,267,164 GWh [4]