美联储，10月降息概率100%？

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has increased uncertainty for the U.S. economy and financial markets, potentially reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in October [1] - Analysts suggest that if the government shutdown lasts for several days, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues may lean towards adopting a more accommodative monetary policy [1] - The ongoing labor market weakness and high inflation present a challenging situation for the Federal Reserve, and a prolonged shutdown could hinder the release of key employment data [1] Group 2 - A solid September employment report is necessary for the Federal Reserve to maintain its current stance; without it, there may be a push for a 'risk management' rate cut [2] - The potential for permanent job cuts in federal positions, as hinted by President Trump, adds further uncertainty to an already weak labor market [2] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October has risen to 100%, with a 99% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and an 88% chance of another cut in December [2]