Ford CEO says Trump killing off the EV tax credit could cut the industry in half: ‘way smaller than we thought’

Core Insights - The expiration of the federal electric vehicle (EV) tax credit marks the end of a 17-year policy that significantly aided EV adoption and reduced the price gap with gasoline vehicles [1] - The immediate consequences include reduced demand for EVs, streamlined production, and a shift in strategy by traditional automakers towards hybrids and profitable internal combustion engine (ICE) models [1] - Ford's CEO predicts a substantial decline in EV market share, potentially dropping to 5% from the current 10-12% due to the removal of the $7,500 consumer incentive [3] Industry Impact - The end of the subsidy is causing structural changes, leading to a surplus in battery production and halted factory plans, which could jeopardize future supply if production capacity is reduced too much [2] - The recent surge in demand before the subsidy expiration is expected to be followed by a significant drop in sales in Q4 as consumers reassess the value of EVs without the tax credit [5] Consumer Behavior - Consumers show a preference for more affordable vehicles, with a noted disinterest in high-priced EVs, indicating a shift towards hybrid and partial electrification solutions [4] - The removal of the tax credit has led to a pause in consumer purchasing decisions as they evaluate financing options and the overall value of EVs [5]