Corn Falls Lower on Monday, as Stocks Come in Well Above Estimates

Group 1 - Corn futures declined by 6 to 7 cents across most contracts due to higher-than-expected corn stocks reported by USDA, with the national average cash corn price at $3.72 ¼, down 6 cents [1] - The Grain Stocks report indicated that September 1 corn stocks were at 1.532 billion bushels (bbu), exceeding the average trade estimate of 1.336 bbu and the September WASDE estimate, but still 231 million bushels (mbu) lower than last year [2] - Minimal revisions were made to the June stocks data, with production for 2024/25 increased by 25 mbu [2] Group 2 - Crop Progress data revealed that the corn harvest is at 18%, slightly below the average pace of 19%, with condition ratings unchanged at 66% good/excellent [3] - The Brugler500 index remained steady at 370, with improvements noted in several states, including Illinois, Indiana, North Dakota, Ohio, and Michigan, while deterioration was observed in Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa, and Minnesota [3] - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange projected the 2025/26 Argentina corn crop at 58 million metric tons (MMT), significantly higher than last year's 49 MMT, while Brazilian corn exports for September were estimated at 7.27 MMT, a decrease of 0.34 MMT from the previous estimate [4]