【环球财经】美联邦政府“停摆”如何影响全球市场

Core Points - The U.S. federal government has entered a shutdown, which is expected to negatively impact the U.S. economy and create ripple effects in global markets, affecting trade and financial stability [1][4]. Impact on International Trade - Customs will remain open, but many technical staff will be on unpaid leave, leading to delays in documentation and inspections, particularly affecting perishable goods and pharmaceuticals [2]. - The last shutdown caused a 15% to 20% increase in cargo dwell time at major U.S. ports [2]. - Trade merchants will face difficulties in obtaining import and export licenses due to insufficient personnel, halting new certifications and approvals [2]. - The potential for irreversible job cuts during the shutdown could weaken U.S. consumer demand, impacting exports from Europe, especially for German industrial firms [2]. - The delay or cancellation of key economic data releases, including employment and price data, will create uncertainty for foreign businesses operating in the U.S. market [2]. Impact on Financial Markets - The shutdown signals systemic dysfunction and political instability, increasing investor risk aversion and leading to a rise in prices for non-U.S. safe-haven assets like gold [3]. - Historical data indicates that shutdowns typically result in a significant increase in market volatility, as reflected by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index [3]. - The current high valuations in global asset markets leave little room for error, making the shutdown a potential trigger for reduced risk appetite and capital shifts towards commodities [3]. - Prolonged shutdowns could lead to further declines in the U.S. dollar index and increased volatility in dollar-denominated assets, creating negative spillover effects in global markets [3]. Impact on Confidence in the U.S. - The shutdown has highlighted flaws in the U.S. governance system, undermining confidence in the U.S. economic management capabilities, which could have long-term implications for the global economic order [4]. - Short-term impacts on U.S. sovereign credit ratings are not expected, but each week of shutdown could reduce GDP by 0.1% to 0.2% [4]. - Concerns about U.S. government credibility and fiscal health have intensified due to the shutdown [4]. Impact on Europe - The shutdown is expected to have a nonlinear impact on the European economy, with potential GDP losses of €4 billion for a two-week shutdown and €16 billion for an eight-week shutdown [5]. - The situation exacerbates existing global economic uncertainties, with potential for significant economic repercussions if the shutdown continues [5].