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经济热点问答|美联邦政府“停摆”如何影响全球市场
Xin Hua She·2025-10-02 09:50

Core Points - The U.S. federal government has entered a shutdown, which is expected to negatively impact the U.S. economy and create ripple effects in global markets, affecting trade and financial stability [1] Impact on International Trade - Customs will remain open, but many technical staff will be on unpaid leave, leading to delays in documentation and inspections, particularly affecting perishable goods and pharmaceuticals [2] - The last shutdown caused a 15% to 20% increase in cargo dwell time at major ports like Los Angeles and Long Beach [2] - Trade merchants will face difficulties in obtaining import and export licenses due to insufficient personnel, halting new certifications and approvals [2] - The potential for irreversible job cuts during the shutdown could weaken U.S. consumer demand, impacting European exports, especially for German industrial firms [2] - Economic data releases will be delayed or canceled, creating uncertainty for foreign businesses operating in the U.S. market [2] Impact on Financial Markets - The shutdown signals systemic dysfunction and political instability, increasing investor risk aversion and leading to a rise in prices for safe-haven assets like gold [3] - Historical data shows that shutdowns typically lead to a significant increase in the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, indicating heightened market volatility [3] - Companies directly or indirectly associated with the U.S. government are likely to see their stock prices pressured [3] - The current high valuations in global asset markets leave little room for error, making the shutdown a negative event that could suppress global market risk appetite [3] - Prolonged shutdowns could lead to further declines in the U.S. dollar index and increased volatility in dollar-denominated assets, affecting global markets [3] Impact on Confidence in the U.S. - The shutdown reveals flaws in the U.S. governance system, undermining confidence in the U.S. economic management capabilities, which could have long-term implications for the global economic order [4] - Standard & Poor's Global indicates that while a short-term shutdown may not affect the U.S. sovereign credit rating, each week of shutdown could reduce GDP by 0.1% to 0.2% [4] - Concerns about U.S. government credibility and fiscal health are heightened due to the shutdown [4] Impact on Europe - The shutdown is expected to have a nonlinear impact on the European economy, with potential GDP losses of €4 billion for a two-week shutdown and €16 billion for an eight-week shutdown [5] - The situation exacerbates existing global economic uncertainties, with potential for significant economic repercussions if the shutdown continues [5]