美联邦政府“停摆”如何影响全球市场

Core Points - The U.S. federal government has entered a shutdown for the first time in nearly seven years, leading to the suspension or delay of certain public services and impacting economic data releases [1] - Analysts predict that the shutdown will negatively affect the U.S. economy and create ripple effects in global markets, undermining confidence in U.S. economic governance [1] Impact on International Trade - Customs will remain open, but many technical staff will be on unpaid leave, causing delays in documentation and inspections, particularly affecting perishable goods and pharmaceuticals [2] - The last shutdown saw cargo dwell times at major ports increase by 15% to 20% [2] - Trade merchants will face difficulties in obtaining import/export licenses due to insufficient personnel, leading to delays in certifications and approvals [2] - The potential for irreversible job cuts during the shutdown could weaken U.S. consumer demand, impacting European exports, especially for German industrial firms [2] - The delay or cancellation of key economic data releases will create uncertainty for foreign businesses operating in the U.S. market [2] Impact on Financial Markets - The shutdown signals systemic dysfunction and political instability, heightening investor risk concerns and potentially leading to increased prices for safe-haven assets like gold [3] - Historical data indicates that shutdowns typically result in a significant rise in the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, reflecting heightened market volatility [3] - The current high valuations in global asset markets leave little room for error, making the shutdown a negative event that could suppress global market risk appetite [3] - Prolonged shutdowns could lead to further declines in the U.S. dollar index and increased volatility in dollar-denominated assets, with global repercussions due to the dollar's dominance [3] Impact on Confidence in the U.S. - The shutdown reveals flaws in the U.S. governance system, shaking confidence in U.S. economic management and potentially affecting its role in the global economy [4] - Short-term impacts on U.S. sovereign credit ratings are not expected, but each week of shutdown could reduce GDP by 0.1% to 0.2% [4] - Concerns about U.S. government credibility and fiscal health are heightened due to the shutdown [4] Impact on Europe - The shutdown is expected to have a nonlinear impact on the European economy, with potential GDP losses of €4 billion for a two-week shutdown and €16 billion for an eight-week shutdown [5] - The situation exacerbates existing global economic uncertainties and could lead to a series of economic consequences if prolonged [5] - Observers express concern over the U.S. government's ability to maintain basic operations, which could have broader implications for global economic stability [5]