EV sales expected to crash without U.S. tax credit; adoption could slow for years to come

Core Insights - The repeal of the U.S. electric vehicle tax credit is expected to significantly impact EV sales in the fourth quarter and could hinder long-term adoption rates [1][6] - Market share for new battery-electric vehicles is projected to remain below 10% this year without federal support, with a potential rise to around 25% by 2030, which is half of previous optimistic forecasts [2][5] - The average cost of EVs is approximately $9,000 higher than comparable gasoline models, and the absence of incentives is likely to exacerbate affordability concerns [3][6] Industry Forecasts - Analysts predict that EV adoption in the U.S. will now reach 50% by 2039, five years later than earlier estimates, due to the repeal of the EV incentive and other policy changes [6] - Ford's CEO expressed concerns that the end of the EV credit and relaxed emissions rules could lead to a decline in EV sales, potentially dropping to 5% of the industry [4] - Despite the challenges, some analysts anticipate a recovery in EV sales next year as automakers introduce more affordable models and increase incentives [7]