Core Insights - Citizens Financial Group's (CFG) net interest income (NII) has shown steady growth with a CAGR of 5.3% from 2019 to 2024, but it declined to $2.83 billion in the first half of 2025 [1][7] - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts are expected to support NII growth, with a reduction of 25 basis points to 4.00–4.25% in September 2025, and potential for two more cuts by year-end [2] - Management projects NII growth of 3–5% in 2025 compared to $5.6 billion in 2024, with an expected improvement in net interest margin (NIM) from 2.85% to 3.0% [3][7] Peers' Performance - Flagstar Financial has experienced volatility in NII, with a four-year CAGR of 18.3% ending in 2024, and a 29.8% decline to $829 million in the first half of 2025, but expects NII between $1.70 billion and $1.75 billion for 2025 [5] - Webster Financial has maintained strong NII growth with a five-year CAGR of 19.6% ending in 2024, reporting $1.2 billion in NII for the first half of 2025, up 8.2% year over year, and projects NII of $2.47–$2.50 billion for 2025 [6]
Citizens Financial's NII Slips in 1H25: Can Fed Cuts Drive a Rebound?