Bitcoin Nears $120,000 Amid Near-Certain Fed Rate Cut and Liquidity Tailwinds

Core Insights - Bitcoin is trading at $118,746, nearing the psychological milestone of $120,000, as investors anticipate a near-certain rate cut in October [2] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 99% probability of an October rate cut, projecting a shift to the 3.75% to 4.00% range [2] Economic Indicators - The ADP National Employment Report revealed a loss of 32,000 private jobs in September, significantly below the expected gain of 51,000, marking the steepest decline since March 2023 [3] - August's payrolls were revised from a reported gain of 54,000 jobs to a decline of 3,000, indicating two consecutive months of contraction in US private-sector employment [4] Market Dynamics - ETF inflows into Bitcoin continue to support demand, although markets remain vulnerable if the Federal Reserve hesitates on monetary policy [5] - Concerns about a prolonged government shutdown could impact economic growth, with estimates suggesting GDP could shrink by up to 0.2% per week if closures persist [5] Liquidity and Safe-Haven Assets - Liquidity dynamics affecting gold and silver are also influencing Bitcoin, as highlighted by veteran analyst Ira Epstein [6]