Rivian's best-case guess for 2025 sales is a 16% drop from last year

Core Insights - Rivian has revised its delivery expectations for electric vehicles (EVs) to a maximum of 43,500 by the end of 2025, indicating a nearly 16% decrease from last year's sales [1] - The company reported a significant increase in third-quarter deliveries, reaching 13,201 vehicles, up from 10,661 in the second quarter and 8,640 in the first quarter [1][2] - Rivian's sales growth is critical as it prepares to launch its R2 SUV, which is anticipated to be its most affordable and popular model [3] Delivery Expectations - Initially, Rivian projected deliveries between 46,000 and 51,000 vehicles for 2024, but this was later adjusted to a range of 40,000 to 46,000 due to changing tariffs and trade regulations [4][5] - The latest guidance narrows the delivery estimate further to between 41,500 and 43,500 vehicles [5] Production Capacity - In the third quarter, Rivian manufactured 10,720 EVs, reflecting its efforts to ramp up production [1] - The company is investing in expanding its Normal, Illinois factory and has begun construction on a new factory in Georgia for the R2 and R3 models [3] Market Context - The U.S. electric vehicle market is facing challenges, particularly with the current administration's stance on EVs and renewable energy, leading to delays or cancellations of new EV plans by major automakers [7] - Despite these challenges, many automakers experienced a surge in EV sales in the third quarter, driven by the impending expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit [8] Competitive Landscape - Rivian's CEO expressed optimism about the company's position in a post-credit market, suggesting that the competition may thin out, benefiting companies focused solely on electrification like Rivian and Tesla [9][10]