Rivian’s best-case guess for 2025 sales is a 16% drop from last year

Core Insights - Rivian has revised its delivery expectations for electric vehicles, now anticipating no more than 43,500 units by the end of 2025, reflecting a nearly 16% decrease from last year's sales [1] - The company reported a significant increase in deliveries for the third quarter, with 13,201 vehicles delivered, up from 10,661 in the second quarter and 8,640 in the first quarter [1][2] - Rivian is preparing to launch its R2 SUV, which is expected to be its most affordable and popular vehicle, with plans to build and sell hundreds of thousands of units [3] Delivery and Production Figures - Rivian's deliveries for 2023 are projected to be lower than in 2024 and 2023, when over 50,000 vehicles were sold [2] - The company initially aimed to deliver between 46,000 and 51,000 vehicles this year but has since lowered its estimate to a range of 41,500 to 43,500 vehicles due to evolving trade regulations and tariffs [4][5] Market Context - The electric vehicle market in the U.S. is facing challenges, particularly with the current administration's stance on renewable energy and emissions regulations [6] - Despite these challenges, other major automakers experienced a surge in EV sales in the third quarter, driven by the expiring $7,500 federal EV tax credit, which Rivian did not benefit from as its vehicles were only eligible for the subsidy if leased [7]