Small cap earnings recession is over, says Citi's Chronert

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 and NASDAQ are reaching new highs despite the ongoing government shutdown, indicating a resilient market environment. The overall strategy remains unchanged, but adjustments have been made for Q4, particularly in the communication services sector [1][2]. Market Strategy Adjustments - The company has lowered its position in communication services from overweight to market weight for the first time since 2023, reflecting a cautious approach as earnings season approaches [3]. - There is a significant expectation built into media stocks, suggesting that merely meeting or beating earnings expectations may not be sufficient to support stock prices in the near term [4]. Sector Insights - The technology sector, especially semiconductors and software, remains a positive focus, driven by the ongoing AI trend [5]. - The consumer discretionary sector has also been adjusted to market weight, indicating a strategic shift towards areas that may benefit from lower interest rates in the future [6][7]. Small and Mid-Cap Stocks - The company is increasingly optimistic about small and mid-cap stocks, which are traditionally more sensitive to economic cycles. The ideal time to invest in small caps is typically post-recession, and the current environment suggests a potential soft landing combined with lower Fed rates [9]. - Small and mid-cap stocks have experienced an earnings recession over the past two years, but recent Q2 results show the first positive inflection in earnings growth, indicating a potential turnaround [10].